Kirt Cathey's Facebook profile

2008年1月5日土曜日

The New Year Has Arrived

Went into the office yesterday to do a few quick tasks before starting up next Monday - gotta like the long New Year vacations in Japan! When I came back home last night after a quick visit by Alex's house, I started doing some Friday night trading and ran right into a jackpot. Usually try to avoid news release periods when trading, but forgot that the US unemployment rate would be announced. Just as the announcement was released, I was long on EUR/USD and experienced a 100+ pip profit! Whewww hoooooo!! Over the past week had been in the red from the blood bath that I suffered when the EUR fell through the floor a few weeks ago, but managed to get ahead again.

Have slightly changed my trading strategy for mixed signals. I have opened a sub-account with a few hundred dollars. When I have mixed indicators - e.g. all of the indicators do not support a particular direction - after reviewing three hour charts, one hour charts, and indicators, I open a trade in the sub-account for a couple hundred units and watch the activity. I trade on the 15 minute chart. If the sub-account goes in the right direction for about three to five minutes, will open a bigger position in the main account.




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Between 20:30 and 21:00, I performed a couple of tests on the sub-account with a long position because the one hour and three hour charts showed a strong indicators for going long. At 20:25, I placed a long order on the main account (graph above) and closed the order when I thought it was going down at 22:15. A gain, but too convergent.

Then I took another look at the one hour chart, where all indicators were strong for a long position, while all the indicators on the 15 minute chart were mixed. After looking at the one hour chart indicators and the breakout candle at the close of the 22:00 to 22:15 time range, realized that an upward trend was most likely. Then I placed three separate long orders at 22:15 and waited. Boom! That's all she wrote. Since the activity was so volatile, I did not maximize profits, but made my fair share.


2008年1月1日火曜日

Nervous New Year's Trading - An Interesting 17:00 JP Time Pattern


Lately I have been a bit nervous about trading the EUR/USD due to some of the recent fluctuations. In for the long on 12/12, I hit a little dip that night then decided to swing trade a couple days thinking that it would go back up... it took a lot longer than I thought. Yesterday's dip at around 17:00 Japan time is starting to be a noticeable pattern. A look across one week on the historical charts, there is at least a 20 - 30 pip drop every day. Let's take a look at the past couple days, since this is all the data I have access to right now.

12/26 - 16:00 to 17:00 Close 1.43949; 17:00 to 18:00 Close 1.43797 --> Total ~15 pips... then 18:00 to 19:00 Close 1.43607 --> Total ~35 pips

12/27 - 16:00 to 17:00 Close 1.45066; 17:00 to 18:00 Close 1.44843 --> Total ~22 pips

12/28 - 16:15 to 16:30 Close 1.46636; 16:30 to 16:45 Close 1.46478 --> Total ~16 pips

12/31 - 16:30 to 16:45 Close 1.47330; 16:45 to 17:00 Close 1.47059 --> Total ~27 pips

While 12/28 was not in the 20 to 30 pip range, the drop in close price is generally more like the 12/31 drop and even much more some times. I wonder if this coincides with a sale spree that occurs at the London market opening? Was going to try and script this into a regular 16:45 automatic short trade with a tight stop-loss.

The chart above in 2007/10/30 through 2008/1/1 daily close price. It appears that the new support may be in the 1.45 range and the EUR will continue the 45 degree increase that we have experienced over the past year. See the five month chart below.